Just saw projections that AI search will be a $66B market by 2035 - are we underinvesting in AI search optimization?

I track these markets professionally. Let me give you the nuanced picture.

The projections are real, but context matters:

The $18.5B to $66.2B growth is for the AI search ENGINE market - the platforms themselves. Your investment question is about AI search OPTIMIZATION - how to appear in those platforms.

Here’s what the data actually tells us:

1. Traffic is still small but growing exponentially - 0.13% sounds tiny, but that’s 4x growth in one year. Extrapolate that.

2. The influence exceeds the traffic - AI recommendations drive branded search and consideration even without direct clicks. The “zero-click” influence is massive.

3. Early movers are establishing authority - Brands optimizing for AI search now are building citation history that will compound.

My assessment:

The 5% allocation might be appropriate TODAY for monitoring. But you should be preparing infrastructure to scale to 15-25% over the next 2-3 years.

The bigger risk isn’t overinvesting - it’s being invisible when AI search becomes a primary discovery channel.

Finance perspective on AI search investment:

The ROI question is hard to answer traditionally:

With traditional SEO/SEM, I can see: spend X, get Y traffic, convert Z%. Clear ROI.

With AI search: spend X, get… visibility? Mentions? How does that convert?

How I’m thinking about it:

1. Brand value lens - AI mentions are brand impressions at scale. What do we pay for impressions elsewhere?

2. Opportunity cost lens - If competitors are visible in AI and we’re not, what deals are we losing that we never knew existed?

3. Future positioning lens - What’s the cost of being invisible when AI search hits 5-10% of discovery?

What I approved:

• 10% of search budget to AI search (up from 5%)
• Dedicated AI visibility monitoring (Am I Cited subscription)
• Quarterly AI visibility audits
• Content team training on AI-optimized content

My position:

We’re treating this as infrastructure investment, not performance marketing. The ROI will become clearer as measurement matures.

I’ve been doing SEO since 2010. Here’s my honest take:

This feels like 2008-2010 mobile all over again.

Back then:

• Mobile web traffic was <5%
• “Do we need a mobile site?” was debated
• Most companies waited
• Early movers captured massive advantages

Today:

• AI search is ~0.13% (growing 4x YoY)
• “Do we need AI search optimization?” is debated
• Most companies are waiting
• Early movers are establishing positions

The math that convinced me:

At current growth rates (4x per year), AI search share could be:

• 2025: 0.13%
• 2026: 0.5%
• 2027: 2%
• 2028: 8%

Even if growth slows (it probably will), we’re looking at meaningful traffic within 3 years.

My allocation recommendation:

Year 1: 10% (establish monitoring, start optimization) Year 2: 15-20% (scale based on results) Year 3: Evaluate based on market reality

Under-investing now means scrambling later.

Small company perspective:

We can’t afford to invest big in speculative channels. But we also can’t afford to miss the next big thing.

Our pragmatic approach:

1. Monitoring investment: ~$200/month for Am I Cited to track AI visibility
2. Content optimization: 0 additional cost - just restructure existing content for AI citability
3. Third-party focus: Invest in review sites, industry publications (we’d do this anyway)
4. Time investment: 4 hours/week auditing AI mentions and adjusting

Total “AI search budget”: Maybe $500/month including time

What we’re seeing:

• Started appearing in Perplexity recommendations within 2 months of optimization
• Branded search up 22% (correlation, not proven causation)
• Two deals explicitly mentioned AI research in discovery calls

My take:

You don’t need massive investment to start. The basics - monitoring, structured content, third-party presence - cost almost nothing extra if you’re already doing content marketing.

The expensive part is the enterprise tooling and dedicated resources. Start without those.

Enterprise scale perspective:

We’ve moved to 20% allocation for AI search-related initiatives. Here’s why:

The board question:

Our board asked: “What happens if ChatGPT becomes how our customers discover solutions, and we’re not recommended?”

That’s an existential question we couldn’t answer with “we’re monitoring it.”

What 20% actually funds:

1. Monitoring infrastructure - Am I Cited enterprise, custom dashboards
2. Content transformation - Restructuring 500+ pages for AI citability
3. Third-party PR - Aggressive push for mentions on high-authority sites
4. Original research - Creating citable data AI can reference
5. Team expertise - Dedicated AI search specialist

Early results (6 months in):

• AI citation frequency: +180%
• Share of AI voice in our category: 12% -> 28%
• Branded search volume: +15%
• Attributable AI-driven leads: 3% of pipeline (and growing)

The scale advantage:

At enterprise scale, the investment makes sense because the downside risk is enormous. A competitor owning AI mindshare could shift market dynamics significantly.

Playing devil’s advocate here:

Reasons to be cautious about big AI search investment:

1. The market is immature - We don’t really know how AI search will evolve. ChatGPT might pivot. Perplexity might plateau. Google might dominate.

2. Measurement is garbage - “AI visibility” metrics are proxies at best. We can’t actually prove ROI.

3. It might be a feature, not a channel - AI search might just become part of Google, not a separate thing to optimize for.

4. The 0.13% reality - That’s still tiny. Most of our customers still Google things traditionally.

My allocation:

5-10% exploratory budget. Enough to learn, not enough to regret if this fizzles.

What would change my mind:

• AI search hitting 2-3% of our traffic
• Clear attribution paths from AI to conversion
• Competitors demonstrably winning deals through AI visibility

Until then, I’m watching closely but not betting big.

Let me share the data that convinced our leadership:

We ran a 6-month analysis:

Group A: Keywords where we appeared in AI search results Group B: Keywords where we didn’t appear in AI search results

Results:

• Group A: Branded search +34%, conversion rate +12%
• Group B: Branded search +8%, conversion rate -2%

The insight:

AI visibility correlates with downstream metrics even when AI doesn’t drive direct traffic. The “zero-click influence” is real and measurable through proxies.

What this means for budgeting:

AI search investment isn’t just about AI traffic. It’s about the influence AI recommendations have on the broader buyer journey.

When you think about it that way, the ROI math changes significantly.

This thread has given me the ammunition I needed for our budget conversation.

My takeaways:

1. The market projections are real - $66B by 2035 is the platform market, but the optimization opportunity is now

2. Small percentage, big trajectory - 0.13% growing 4x annually means meaningful traffic within 2-3 years

3. Influence exceeds traffic - AI recommendations drive branded search and consideration even without clicks

4. Early positioning matters - Training data and citation patterns compound over time

5. Start infrastructure, not performance - This is positioning investment, not performance marketing (yet)

What I’m proposing:

Year 1 (now):

• Increase from 5% to 12% of search budget
• Implement Am I Cited for systematic monitoring
• Restructure top 50 pages for AI citability
• Add AI visibility to monthly reporting

Year 2:

• Scale to 18-22% based on results
• Dedicate partial FTE to AI search
• Aggressive third-party presence building

Year 3:

• Full evaluation and adjustment

The mobile analogy from the SEO veteran really landed. I’d rather invest early in something that might be huge than scramble later when competitors have established positions.

Thanks everyone for the reality check.