Discussion SEO Strategy ROI

Ainda vale a pena investir em SEO tradicional com a ascensão da busca por IA? Sentindo-me em conflito

BU
Budget_Pressured_CMO · CMO em empresa de $30M
· · 178 upvotes · 15 comments
BP
Budget_Pressured_CMO
CMO at $30M Company · January 5, 2026

Getting squeezed from both sides here.

From leadership: “Why are we spending so much on SEO when everyone’s using ChatGPT now?”

From our SEO team: “AI search is the future, we need more budget for GEO.”

The numbers:

  • Current SEO spend: $15K/month
  • SEO drives 35% of our qualified pipeline
  • AI referral traffic is growing but still small (~3% of organic)

What I’m hearing:

  • “AI will handle 25% of searches by end of 2026” (Gartner)
  • “SEO delivers 550% ROI” (recent studies)
  • “Google rankings matter for AI visibility”
  • “Traditional SEO is dead”

My confusion: If AI visibility depends on Google rankings, shouldn’t I keep investing in SEO? But if AI is the future, shouldn’t I shift investment there? Are these mutually exclusive or complementary?

What I need:

  • Real data on SEO ROI vs AI optimization ROI
  • Framework for budget allocation
  • How to explain this to a CFO who thinks “SEO is the old way”

I have a budget review in 2 weeks and I’m genuinely unsure what to recommend.

15 comments

15 Comments

SR
SEO_ROI_Analyst Expert VP of Growth at Enterprise SaaS · January 5, 2026

Let me give you the data your CFO needs:

SEO ROI comparison (2024-2025 data):

ChannelAverage ROIPayback PeriodLong-term Value
SEO550%12-18 monthsCompounds over years
Paid Search (SEM)200%ImmediateStops when you stop paying
Social Media Ads150%ImmediateLimited compounding
AI OptimizationToo early to measure6-12 monthsUnknown

The key insight: SEO isn’t competing with AI optimization. It’s FOUNDATIONAL to AI optimization.

Research from 25,000 searches:

  • Pages ranked #1 on Google appear in AI answers ~25% of the time
  • Pages outside top 10: <5% AI visibility
  • The correlation is clear: Google rankings → AI visibility

What this means for budget: You can’t REPLACE SEO with AI optimization. AI systems USE Google rankings to identify trustworthy sources. If you kill SEO, you kill AI visibility too.

My recommendation:

  • Keep SEO investment (it’s working AND feeds AI)
  • ADD GEO budget (10-20% of SEO budget to start)
  • Track both metrics

This isn’t either/or. It’s both.

CW
CFO_Whisperer_CMO CMO (former CFO) · January 5, 2026
Replying to SEO_ROI_Analyst

As a former CFO turned CMO, let me translate this for your budget meeting:

What CFOs actually worry about:

  1. Is this spend driving measurable revenue?
  2. What happens if we cut it?
  3. Is there a more efficient alternative?

Your answers:

1. Is SEO driving revenue? “SEO drives 35% of our qualified pipeline at 550% ROI. That’s $X million in pipeline from $180K annual investment.”

2. What happens if we cut it? “If we reduce SEO investment, we’ll see organic traffic decline within 3-6 months. Competitors will fill the gap. Regaining those rankings takes 12-18 months - it’s not a tap you can turn off and on.”

3. Is AI optimization a better alternative? “AI optimization isn’t a replacement - it’s an expansion. AI systems use Google rankings as a trust signal. Cutting SEO would actually hurt our AI visibility. What I’m proposing is ADDING AI optimization while maintaining SEO.”

The budget ask: “I recommend adding $3K/month for AI visibility (tools + time allocation) while maintaining current SEO investment. This gives us coverage across both traditional and AI search surfaces.”

The risk narrative: “The risk of under-investing in SEO is proven (competitors gain, we lose). The risk of not starting AI optimization is emerging (we’re already seeing competitors in AI answers). Both/and is the conservative approach.”

RC
Reality_Check_Data Marketing Analytics Director · January 5, 2026

Let me share what we’re actually seeing in the data:

Traffic composition (2025 vs 2024):

Source20242025Change
Google Organic62%58%-4%
Direct18%19%+1%
AI Referral0.5%3%+2.5%
Paid15%14%-1%
Other4.5%6%+1.5%

What this actually means: Google organic is still dominant, but declining. AI referral is growing fast from a small base. The shift is happening, but slowly.

Conversion rate comparison:

  • Google organic: 2.8%
  • AI referral: 3.4%
  • Paid search: 1.9%

The insight: AI referral traffic converts slightly better (users come with more context), but volume is still much smaller.

Practical recommendation: Don’t reallocate - expand. SEO is still your horse. AI is your hedge.

LG
Long_Game_Perspective VP Digital at Enterprise Company · January 4, 2026

I’ve been through several “SEO is dead” cycles:

  • 2008: “Social will kill SEO”
  • 2012: “Mobile will kill desktop SEO”
  • 2016: “Voice search will eliminate SEO”
  • 2020: “TikTok is the new search”
  • 2024: “AI will kill SEO”

What actually happened each time: SEO evolved. Added mobile optimization. Added voice search optimization. Added social signals. Now adding AI optimization.

The pattern: Each new technology doesn’t replace SEO - it adds a layer that SEO practitioners need to understand.

What will happen with AI:

  • Core SEO skills remain essential
  • New skills get added (AI content optimization)
  • Best practitioners adapt and thrive
  • Worst practitioners blame technology for their failure

My prediction: In 3 years, we won’t talk about “SEO vs GEO.” We’ll just call it “search optimization” and it will include all surfaces.

For your budget: Invest in people and processes that can adapt, not in either/or strategies that assume one approach wins permanently.

PB
Practical_Budget_Split Marketing Director · January 4, 2026

Here’s a practical budget framework:

Current state (what most companies have):

  • 100% traditional SEO focus
  • 0% AI visibility focus
  • No AI tracking tools

Recommended 2026 allocation:

Category% of Search BudgetActivities
Technical SEO25%Site health, speed, structure
Content SEO35%Keyword-optimized content
Link Building/PR20%Authority building
AI Optimization15%AI-specific content, citation tracking
Tools & Analytics5%Including Am I Cited for AI

How AI budget breaks down:

  • AI visibility tracking tools: 30%
  • Content restructuring for AI: 40%
  • Time for AI-specific optimization: 30%

The implementation: Don’t cut existing SEO. Take from content budget for AI optimization since there’s strong overlap.

What NOT to do:

  • Kill link building for AI (backlinks still matter for AI trust signals)
  • Abandon technical SEO (AI crawlers need accessible sites too)
  • Stop tracking Google rankings (they feed AI visibility)
SC
Small_Company_Reality · January 4, 2026

For context, I run marketing at a similar sized company ($25M). Here’s our honest experience:

What we tried: Shifted 30% of SEO budget to “AI optimization” in Q2 2025.

What happened:

  • Organic traffic dropped 15% in 6 months
  • AI visibility… stayed flat (we were doing it wrong)
  • Had to reverse course

What we learned:

  1. We cut SEO prematurely before understanding what AI optimization actually meant
  2. “AI optimization” wasn’t a budget category - it’s a practice layered on SEO
  3. You can’t buy AI visibility the way you buy rankings

What we do now:

  • Full SEO investment restored
  • Added Am I Cited for tracking (~$200/month)
  • 10% of content team’s time on AI-specific optimization
  • Track both Google rankings AND AI citations

Results after adjustment:

  • Organic traffic: Recovering (up 8% QoQ)
  • AI citations: Actually improving now (up 40%)
  • Combined visibility: Best it’s ever been

The lesson: SEO and AI visibility aren’t competing budgets. They’re the same muscle exercised in two ways.

QF
Query_Fan_Out_Expert Expert AI Search Researcher · January 4, 2026

Let me explain WHY Google rankings matter for AI visibility:

The query fan-out effect:

When someone asks ChatGPT a question, it doesn’t just run one search. It runs multiple related searches to build a comprehensive answer.

Example query: “Best project management tools for startups”

ChatGPT might internally search:

  • “project management tools startups”
  • “project management software reviews”
  • “startup productivity tools”
  • “agile tools for small teams”

Why rankings matter: Your chance of appearing in the AI answer increases with every related query you rank well for. It’s not just your main keyword - it’s the entire topic cluster.

The math:

  • Rank for 1 query: ~5% chance of AI citation
  • Rank for 5 related queries: ~20% chance
  • Rank for 20 related queries: ~45% chance

Implication: The SEO practice of building topical authority (ranking for clusters of related terms) directly feeds AI visibility.

Why you CAN’T skip SEO: AI systems trust Google’s judgment. They don’t independently evaluate content - they start with what Google has already validated.

Cut SEO → Lose rankings → Lose AI visibility

It’s a dependency, not a choice.

CA
Counter_Argument · January 3, 2026

Playing devil’s advocate:

Arguments for reducing SEO investment:

  1. Zero-click searches are growing - Users get answers without clicking. Rankings matter less.

  2. AI Overviews compress the funnel - Even ranked pages get less traffic when AI summarizes above them.

  3. Brand building might matter more - AI cites brands it trusts, not just pages that rank.

  4. Content quality > SEO tricks - AI evaluates substance, not optimization signals.

My honest take: Traditional SEO focused on keywords and links is less valuable. Modern SEO focused on authority and clarity is more valuable.

What to CUT from SEO budget:

  • Keyword stuffing approaches
  • Low-quality link building
  • Content volume plays
  • Technical tricks

What to KEEP in SEO budget:

  • Technical excellence (speed, structure)
  • Authority building (real PR, real mentions)
  • Content quality (expertise, clarity)
  • User experience optimization

The question isn’t “SEO vs AI” - it’s “outdated SEO vs modern SEO.”

IA
Integration_Approach Head of Organic · January 3, 2026
Replying to Counter_Argument

Building on this nuance:

SEO that feeds AI visibility:

SEO PracticeAI RelevanceKeep/Cut
Quality contentHighINVEST MORE
Technical SEOHighMAINTAIN
Schema markupHighINVEST MORE
Topic authorityHighINVEST MORE
Link from quality sitesMedium-HighMAINTAIN
Keyword targetingMediumEVOLVE
Low-quality link buildingLowCUT
Content volume playsLowCUT

The evolution: Old: “Rank for keyword X” New: “Be the authoritative answer for topic X across all search surfaces”

Practical change: Instead of “optimize this page for keyword,” it’s “make this content the definitive answer that both Google AND AI systems want to cite.”

Same budget, evolved strategy.

CS
Case_Study_Share Director of Marketing · January 3, 2026

Let me share our A/B budget experiment:

Setup: Two product lines, similar markets, different budget strategies for 6 months.

Product A: SEO-heavy

  • $12K/month SEO
  • $2K/month AI optimization
  • Focus on rankings first

Product B: AI-heavy

  • $8K/month SEO
  • $6K/month AI optimization
  • Focus on AI visibility first

Results after 6 months:

MetricProduct AProduct B
Google organic traffic+22%+8%
AI citation rate+35%+28%
Branded search+15%+12%
Pipeline influenced+30%+18%

The surprise: Product A (SEO-heavy) actually saw BETTER AI visibility growth.

Why: Strong Google rankings created the foundation that AI systems needed to discover and trust the content. The AI-heavy approach for Product B spent resources optimizing content that AI couldn’t find because rankings weren’t strong enough.

The lesson: Build the SEO foundation first. AI optimization is amplification, not replacement.

BP
Budget_Pressured_CMO OP CMO at $30M Company · January 3, 2026

This thread gave me exactly what I needed for the budget review. Here’s my pitch:

For the CFO:

“SEO continues to deliver 550% ROI and drives 35% of qualified pipeline. But the search landscape is evolving, and we need to maintain our position across both traditional and AI search surfaces.”

The recommendation:

Current: $15K/month SEO Proposed: $15K/month SEO + $2K/month AI optimization

Breakdown of additional $2K:

  • $500/month: AI visibility tracking (Am I Cited)
  • $1500/month: Team time allocation for AI-specific optimization

Why not cut SEO: “AI systems use Google rankings to identify trustworthy content. Research shows #1 Google rankings appear in AI answers 25% of the time. Cutting SEO investment would hurt both channels.”

Success metrics:

  • Google rankings: Maintain or improve current positions
  • AI visibility: Increase citation rate from 5% to 15% in 12 months
  • Combined search visibility: Track across all surfaces

The risk narrative: “Continuing SEO investment is low risk - proven ROI. Adding AI optimization is low cost, high potential. Cutting SEO to fund AI would undermine both.”

Timeline:

  • Q1: Set up tracking, baseline metrics
  • Q2-Q3: Execute integrated strategy
  • Q4: Evaluate and adjust based on data

Thanks everyone. This is a much clearer narrative than “SEO vs AI” framing I came in with.

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Frequently Asked Questions

O SEO tradicional ainda entrega ROI em 2026?
Sim, o SEO entrega um ROI médio de 550%, superando significativamente a busca paga, que entrega 200% de ROI. Além disso, sites que ranqueiam em 1º lugar no Google aparecem em respostas de IA cerca de 25% das vezes, tornando o SEO fundamental também para a visibilidade em IA.
Devo transferir orçamento do SEO para otimização em IA?
Não, você deve somar ao SEO, não substituí-lo. Os sistemas de IA dependem dos rankings do Google para identificar conteúdo autoritativo. Um SEO tradicional forte cria a base para a visibilidade em IA. A abordagem recomendada é 60-70% em SEO tradicional, 20-30% em otimização específica para IA.
O SEO vai se tornar obsoleto com o crescimento da busca por IA?
O SEO vai evoluir, não desaparecer. A necessidade fundamental de descobrir informações não vai sumir. O que muda é o formato – de otimizar para rankings para otimizar para visibilidade em diversas superfícies de busca, incluindo IA. As habilidades centrais de SEO continuam essenciais.
Como o ranking no Google afeta a visibilidade em IA?
Pesquisas mostram que páginas ranqueadas em 1º lugar no Google aparecem em respostas de IA aproximadamente 25% das vezes, com visibilidade decaindo para posições mais baixas. Os sistemas de IA usam as páginas do topo como fontes confiáveis porque o algoritmo do Google já validou sua autoridade.

Acompanhe Tanto SEO quanto Visibilidade em IA

Monitore seu desempenho tanto nos rankings do Google QUANTO nas citações por IA. Veja como o SEO tradicional alimenta a visibilidade em IA em plataformas como ChatGPT, Perplexity e outras.

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