Ran the math on our client portfolio. Here’s the economic impact:
Scenario comparison (monthly):
Traditional view:
- Google traffic: 10,000 visits @ 2% conversion = 200 conversions
- AI traffic: 200 visits @ 14% conversion = 28 conversions
- Conclusion: “AI traffic is negligible”
Revenue-adjusted view (at $100 AOV):
- Google: 200 conversions = $20,000
- AI: 28 conversions = $2,800
But what if AI traffic grows 5x?
- AI: 1,000 visits @ 14% = 140 conversions = $14,000
The math revelation:
At current conversion rates, AI only needs to hit 25% of Google’s volume to drive equal conversions. Given growth trajectories, this is coming faster than people realize.
What we’re telling clients:
Don’t evaluate AI traffic by volume. Evaluate by conversion value. Small channel now, potentially dominant channel soon.